If China's exchange-rate policy is a speedometer for the government's move toward market economics, that thinking appears to be picking up speed.
Thanks to a surge in recent weeks, the yuan is set to end 2007 up nearly 7% against the dollar -- twice the amount it appreciated against the U.S. currency in 2006 -- and economists forecast a similar pace of upward movement in 2008. That could help cool down the red-hot growth in the world's third-largest economy.
Some analysts see the apparent policy shift as a sign of confidence. One reason the government seems more willing to move now is that Chinese exporters are so far surviving the effects of pinched profit margins resulting from the pricier Chinese currency -- important because maintaining jobs in the huge export sector is a priority of China's leadership.
'China's economic strength is even bigger, risk-control ability is stronger, and the government is more confident,' says Gao Huiqing, a strategy department chief at the State Information Center, a high-level think tank in Beijing.
The accelerated movement against the dollar also appears to be driven by several concerns that a stronger currency could help address: inflation running at its highest rate in 11 years, a current-account surplus that soared to 12% of gross domestic product in the first half of 2007, and ballooning valuations on Chinese stock markets.
Even so, there is little indication that the yuan's rise has satisfied U.S. politicians, manufacturers or workers, who have complained for years that China is unfairly boosting exports by manipulating the currency. Deep-seated American angst about China as a competitor for U.S. jobs, which is fueling rhetoric in presidential and conGREssional campaigns, is unlikely to be assuaged by a modest acceleration of the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.
And China's recent moves are less impressive when measured against a broad group of currencies, especially in Europe, China's No. 1 trading partner. Because China primarily limits exchange-rate movement against the dollar, the yuan has actually tracked the dollar lower this year against many other currencies, including the euro, and Europe and Japan have recently stepped up their criticism of China's policy.
Although Beijing ended the yuan's informal peg to the dollar in July 2005, it has continued to tightly control its value, and critics argue that it has kept the currency's value artificially low in order to make its exports cheaper and more competitive against products from other countries.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin pointed to a speech earlier this month in which Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the pace of the yuan's change is 'still not fast enough to reduce China's global trade surplus' or other pressures, and called again for 'a more flexible currency.'
Some Washington veterans suspect Chinese leaders may be holding back on making concessions to the U.S., aware that no matter what they offer the Bush administration, the next president will want more.
The U.S. Treasury estimated in a report published Dec. 19 that the yuan had effectively appreciated just 3.8% since July 2005 when measured against currencies of all its major trading partners.
The dollar finished at 7.3041 yuan on Friday, giving it a rise of 6.9% in 2007, compared with the 3.4% gain in 2006. That means much of the Chinese currency's roughly 13% gain since July 2005 has been chalked up in the second half of this year. Though far from stunning for the world's volatile foreign-exchange markets, the 2007 gains mark the biggest move for China's currency since a devaluation of one-third in the early 1990s.
The yuan rose just 1.8% against the yen this year, and it weakened about 4.2% against the euro.
Merrill Lynch & Co. economists recently predicted that the dollar will fall to less than seven yuan around August, when Beijing hosts the Olympics, a 4.3% move from current levels. Merrill estimates the dollar will trade at 6.80 yuan by the end of 2008, for a full-year increase of 7.4%. That would mean a rise of nearly 18% since the informal peg ended.
In December alone, the yuan rose 1.3%, or a 16% annualized rate. The late-year pop has prompted some analysts to post more agGREssive currency forecasts for 2008. Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., for example, have suggested Beijing might engineer a one-off boost in the currency of 10% to 15%, although Chinese officials have said in the past they don't intend to make such a move.
The yuan's recent gains have generated speculation that Beijing is trying to delay the political backlash expected when its foreign-exchange reserves hit $1.5 trillion -- triple the level of just three years ago. China's gaping global trade surplus is the biggest reason for the reserves buildup, because they represent money the central bank has bought from exporters in exchange for issuing them yuan.
But few analysts see China's dominance as an exporter threatened in the coming year, either by the yuan's rise or by the possibility of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Data on reserves published by Logan Wright, an analyst for Stone & McCarthy in Beijing, suggests the government is working double-time to contain growth in its foreign-exchange reserves. It says the pile GREw an average $44.4 billion per month in the first half of this year but slowed to less than $25 billion monthly between August and October. In one move to spend reserves, Beijing inaugurated an investment company that is partly credited with helping China for the first time spend more money buying companies overseas -- including stakes in Wall Street titans Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns Cos. -- than was spent on takeovers of Chinese companies.
The yuan's recent acceleration came after the government said in December that monetary policy would become 'tight,' a significant change in tone that was backed with more agGREssive lending limits for banks. That, in turn, followed the selection in October of a new senior echelon of Communist Party leaders under President Hu Jintao.
The leadership has been especially alarmed by surging prices for food that have aroused public discontent and pushed up inflation, despite government efforts to tame it. The benchmark consumer-price index jumped 6.9% in November from a year earlier. While low compared with the 20%-plus inflation rates of the early 1990s, the rise stoked concerns of social unrest among the urban and rural poor.
China's central bank has been raising interest rates to combat the price pressure, another factor that could be underpinning the yuan. Each time the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers rates or China raises them, yuan-denominated deposits and other investments look comparatively more attractive, and Beijing may be accepting that reality.
The mechanics of China's exchange-rate policy remain murky. Currency traders in Shanghai, where the yuan trades, say recent strength has masked how much more active the People's Bank of China has become in managing the exchange rate.
Even as it has repeatedly published ever-higher daily 'parity' rates for the yuan against the dollar, which establish the parameters for daily trading, it has set highly technical rules that introduce artificial market demand for U.S. dollars, such as requiring banks to set aside more of their deposits as reserves in the U.S. currency.
Factory owners say the rising yuan particularly hurts because it is arriving as Beijing tightens labor, environmental and safety laws, all of which impose costs. A maker of bamboo products in Hangzhou says a tariff-rebate cut to 7% of duty paid from 13% has slashed profit in half, toward the 1.5 million-yuan range, and has prompted it to explore domestic-sales opportunities and higher-value-added products rather than rely on its export base around Asia.
Zhejiang Beckman Group, a maker of sweaters and jackets for brands like H&M and Benetton, says uncertainty about the exchange rate has prompted it to sign shorter-term contracts.
如果中国的汇率政策可视为中国政府向市场经济方向转变的计速器，那么这种转变现在似乎正在加速。
伴随近几周来的大幅升值，人民币兑美元汇率2007年全年的升值幅度有望达到近7%，比2006年快出一倍。经济学家预计2008年人民币升值幅度仍将达到这一水平，中国这一世界第三大经济体趋于白热化的经济增速有望因此而有所减缓。
一些分析师将中国汇率政策的明显转变看作是信心的体现。中国政府对人民币升值容忍程度加大的原因之一似乎是，中国的出口商迄今为止承受住了人民币升值对企业利润率的挤压效应，这一点至关重要，因为保住庞大出口产业的就业机会是中国领导层的一个优先政策目标。
中国高层智库国家信息中心(State Information Center)的战略规划处处长高辉清说，中国的经济实力变得更强，风险控制能力有所提高，而且政府的信心也更足了。
人民币兑美元汇率的加速升值似乎也缘于中国政府对通货膨胀形势、经常项目盈余和股市上涨的担忧，而人民币升值有助于缓解这些担忧。中国的通货膨胀率目前已升至11年来的最高水平，中国2007年上半年的经常项目盈余高达同期国内生产总值的12%，而中国股市的总市值今年也急剧膨胀。
即便如此，现在也毫无迹象显示人民币汇率的上扬已令美国政界、制造业以及产业工人们感到心满意足，这些人多年来一直抱怨说，中国通过操纵人民币汇率这种不公平手段推高了中国的出口额。人民币兑美元汇率升值速度的温和加快不大可能缓解美国人对中国与之争夺就业机会的忧虑，这种担忧正日益成为美国总统和国会选举中的热门话题。
而如果以人民币兑一篮子货币的升值幅度来衡量的话，人民币汇率近来的上扬就不那么显著了，这在人民币兑欧元汇率方面体现得尤其明显，而欧盟目前已是中国第一大贸易伙伴。由于中国主要是针对美元进行汇率调整，因此人民币兑许多其他货币（包括欧元）的汇率今年都追随美元而有所下滑；欧洲和日本近来都加大了对中国汇率政策的指责。
尽管中国政府已于2005年7月结束了人民币实际上与美元挂钩的汇率制度，但仍对人民币汇率实施严格管理。批评人士声称，中国政府人为地压低人民币汇率，以降低中国出口产品的售价，提高中国产品在国际市场上的竞争力。
美国财政部发言人布鲁克利?麦克拉琳(Brookly McLaughlin)援引财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)本月早些时候的讲话说，人民币的升值步伐仍不够快，不足以减少中国的贸易顺差或缓解中国所承受的其他压力；鲍尔森在讲话中再度呼吁中国加大人民币汇率的灵活性。
华盛顿的一些资深政界人士怀疑，中国领导人可能已不愿意继续向美国作出让步，因为他们认识到不管向布什政府作出多大让步，下一任美国总统想要得到的只会更多。
美国财政部在12月19日发表的一份报告中估计，如果按人民币兑中国各主要贸易伙伴国货币的汇率来衡量，人民币汇率自2005年7月以来实际上只升值了3.8%。
美元兑人民币汇率上周五收于人民币7.3041元，2007年累计升值6.9%，升幅高于2006年的3.4%。这意味着人民币兑美元汇率2005年7月以来累计13%左右的升值幅度大都是在今年下半年实现的。虽然人民币2007年的升幅和今年全球汇市的波幅一比难免相形见绌，但却是中国自上世纪90年代初将本币贬值三分之一以来人民币汇率变动幅度最大的一年。
人民币兑日圆汇率今年仅上涨了1.8%，兑欧元汇率则下跌了4.2%。
最近美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)的经济学家预测明年8月份北京奥运会前后，美元兑人民币将跌破7元大关，较目前水平下跌4.3%。美林估计2008年年底前美元将跌至人民币6.80元一线，从而使得人民币明年全年的升幅达到7.4%，预计届时人民币汇率将较取消钉住美元政策之时累计上涨近18%。
仅在12月份，人民币升值就达1.3%，折合成年率为16%。年末人民币的大幅升值令一些分析人士预测2008年人民币的升值幅度将会更大。例如，摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的分析师指出北京方面可能会一次性将人民币升值10%到15%，尽管中国政府官员过去已表示没有这样的升值计划。
由于中国的外汇储备已将近1.5万亿美元，较三年前增长了两倍，所以最近人民币的加速升值令市场猜测这是北京方面正在努力延缓可能随之产生的政治影响。中国不断膨胀的贸易顺差是造成外汇储备激增的最主要原因，中国央行在向出口商买进美元/人民币的过程中屯积了大量外汇。
但几乎没有哪位分析人士认为明年人民币的升值或是美国经济增长的放缓会给中国作为出口大国的地位带来威胁。
据Stone & McCarthy驻北京的分析师洛根?莱特(Logan Wright)公布的外汇储备数据显示，政府正在加紧控制外汇储备的增长。该报告指出，今年上半年外汇储备每月平均增加444亿美元，但8月份至10月份间，每月增加不到250亿美元。为了利用这些外汇储备，北京成立了一个投资公司，这在一定程度上推动中国收购海外公司的投资额首次超过了外国企业收购国内公司的投资额。这些海外投资项目包括收购华尔街巨头摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和贝尔斯登公司(Bear Stearns Cos.)的股权等。
10月份中国共产党选举产生了以胡锦涛为主席的新领导班子。接着在12月份中国政府表示将实行从紧的货币政策，显示出官方态度发生了明显变化，同时银行的信贷额度也进一步收紧，此后人民币汇率出现了大幅升值。
食品价格的飙升引起了领导层的格外关注，该问题不但激起了公众的不满，还推动了通货膨胀率的上扬，尽管中国政府为了遏制通货膨胀已经连连出手。11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)较去年同期上升了6.9%。虽然这个水平低于上个世纪90年代初超过20%的通货膨胀率，但如此升幅还是令人们担心物价的上涨或在城镇和农村贫困人口中引发社会动荡。
中国央行一直在通过上调利率来缓解物价压力，这也是给人民币带来支撑的可能因素之一。每次美国联邦储备委员会(FED)下调利率或中国央行上调利率，以人民币计价的存款和其他投资就会显得更有吸引力，北京方面可能也逐步接受了这一现实。
中国汇率政策的机制仍然模糊不清。上海的外汇交易员表示近期人民币汇率走强掩盖了中国央行是如何活跃地管理汇率的。
虽然中国央行每天公布的作为外汇交易基准的人民币兑美元中间价一路上涨，但政府还是制定了高度技术性的规定，人为地扩大了市场对美元的需求，比如要求银行更多地用美元缴纳存款准备金等。
生产厂家表示人民币升值对其伤害尤其严重，因为同时中国政府还制定了更加严格的劳动、环境和安全法律，所有这些都会造成成本上升。杭州一家竹制品生产商表示，出口退税从原来的13%降到7%，公司的利润因而削减了一半，减少到人民币150万元左右，所以公司不得不挖掘内销机会，并生产高附加值的产品，而不再仅依靠亚洲地区的出口基地。
浙江贝克曼集团(Zhejiang Beckman Group)是H&M和Benetton(贝纳通)等品牌毛衣和夹克的贴牌生产商，该公司表示汇率前景不明促使公司决定签署短期合同。
