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四川地震经济损失统计高达5000亿

[日期:2008-05-22]   [字体: ]

截至5月21日12时,汶川大地震已造成41353人遇难,274683人受伤,累计失踪32666人。

 
2008年5月20日,武警官兵在通往北川县城的道路上设置警戒点,所有人员不得进入县城…
 

专家预计,地震对中国经济的影响逐渐浮现,造成的经济损失恐怕会远超雪灾造成1516.5亿元的损失。


有关部门初步估算,地震导致四川工业企业损失超过670亿元,逾1.4万家企业受灾,而私人财产所遭受的损失预计将远远大于企业损失。上周,摩根大通的研究报告称,地震对中国经济的影响有限且短暂,远不及年初发生的雪灾。


经济学者刘正山估算,地震带来的直接经济损失大约为5252亿元,今年初雪灾的经济损失为1516.5亿元,意味大地震对经济造成的破坏,较雪灾多近2.5倍。国家信息中心首席经济师范剑平亦表示,与雪灾相比,地震给人民财产造成更大损失,直接经济损失较雪灾大得多。


国际巨灾风险模型公司AIR环球公司20日表示,历史损失数据的缺乏加大了估算中国四川地震造成的经济损失的难度,AIR原先估计的1400亿元人民币经济损失,描述的是对地震灾害模拟出的五个版本中受损程度最轻的情况。


据2007年的数据,四川人口8170万人,占全国总人口6.2%;四川GDP达10505.3亿元,占全国GDP4.3%。范剑平相信,第二季四川省消费和服务业,主要是旅游业将受打击,令全国GDP增速受负面影响。招商证券指出,四川去年有2000万人到省外工作,为全国第一,灾后可能会有大批工人回流家乡协助重建,影响全国劳动力供应。


中信证券首席宏观分析师诸建芳相信,受灾地区占四川省GDP约50%,占全国GDP约2%,地震可能拖低中国全年GDP增速约0.2个百分点。中银国际则发表报告,估计地震可能令今年中国GDP增长率下降0.4至0.7个百分点。


目前,多数机构和经济界人士的损失评估在1500亿元-2000亿元之间。专家表示,由于目前经济受损程度仍在统计之中,大部分具体金额尚未披露。但从现有的数据也可看出,此次汶川大地震对经济存量的损失不容小觑。


资料:美日两次地震造成的损失


1994年1月,洛杉矶地区发生6.7级地震,据美国保险信息研究学会的统计,当时造成经济损失约为200亿美元,折合现值约为280亿美元左右,是洛杉矶历史上有记录的造成经济损失最严重的一次地震。


2007年7月16日,日本中部地区发生6.8级地震。受灾最严重的是新泻县,据新泻县政府测算,该县在地震中遭受的损失将超过7000亿日元(1美元约合121日元)。

 

As at 12:00 on May 21, Wenchuan major earthquake has resulted in 41,353 people dead, 274,683 wounded, 32,666 missing people total.

 
May 20, 2008, the armed police officers and soldiers to the North River in the county set up alert on the road, all personnel not be allowed to enter the county…
 

Experts predict that the earthquake's impact on China's economy gradually emerged, the economic losses caused by fear of far more than snowstorm caused the loss of 151.65 billion yuan.


The departments concerned to preliminary estimates, the earthquake led to losses of industrial enterprises in Sichuan over 67 billion yuan, more than 14,000 businesses affected, and private property losses suffered by businesses is expected to be far GREater than losses. Last week, JP Morgan research report said the quake to have limited impact on China's economic and short, nowhere near the beginning of the snowstorm.


Liu Zheng Shan economists estimated that the earthquake brought direct economic losses of about 525.2 billion yuan, the snowstorm earlier this year to 151.65 billion yuan of economic losses, mean that the earthquake caused damage to the economy, more than snowstorm nearly 2.5 times. State Information Center also said Fan Jianping, chief economist, compared with the snowstorm, the earthquake caused to the people a GREater loss of property, direct economic loss is much greater than the snowstorm.


International Catastrophe Risk Model company AIR Worldwide said the company on the 20th, the lack of historical data loss estimates China's Sichuan Province has increased the economic losses caused by the earthquake of difficulty, AIR original estimate of 140 billion yuan of economic losses, described the earthquake disaster simulation To the five lightest version of the extent of the damage.


According to 2007 data, the population of 81.7 million people in Sichuan, accounting for 6.2 percent of the total population; Sichuan GDP amounted to 1.05053 trillion yuan, accounting for GDP4.3%. Fan Jianping believe the second quarter, consumer and service industries in Sichuan Province, mainly the tourism industry will be affected, the national GDP growth rate by the negative impact. China Merchants Securities, Sichuan last year, 20 million people to work outside the province, first in the country, the disaster may have a large number of workers returning home to help rebuild and affect the supply of labour.


CITIC Securities chief analyst Zhu Jianfang macro believe that the affected areas account for about 50 percent of GDP in Sichuan Province, the country's total GDP of about 2 percent, the earthquake could drag down China's annual GDP growth rate of about 0.2 percentage points. BOC International, released a report, it is estimated that the earthquake may make this year's GDP growth rate declined from 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points.


At present, most institutions and economic circles in the assessment of the loss of 150 billion yuan -2000 billion. Experts said that as the extent of damage is still the current economic statistics, most of the specific amount not disclosed. However, the available data can also see that the major earthquake on the economy Wenchuan stock losses can not be underestimated.


Information: the United States and Japan twice the losses caused by earthquake


January 1994, the Los Angeles area 6.7 earthquake, according to the Insurance Information Institute's statistics, at that time caused economic losses of about 20 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to the present value of about 28 billion U.S. dollars is at about the history of Los Angeles have caused economic record The most serious loss of an earthquake.


July 16, 2007, the central Japan region 6.8 earthquake. Is the hardest-hit Niigata Prefecture, according to the Niigata government estimates, the earthquake in the county suffered losses will be over 700 billion yen (121 yen about one U.S. dollars).

 

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